Forest Vulnerability Assessment Tool

Vulnerability of trees species to climate change

Potential for migration failure

These interactive maps show Canadian tree vulnerability to migration failure for three projected time periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100). These maps are comprised of two components:

  • Exposure to migration failure: Distance between current and future suitable conditions. These zones of exposure (i.e. where tree species will be exposed to migration failure) were defined by cross-referencing tree species’ current distribution with their projected climatic conditions.
  • Sensitivity: Migration capacity of exposed species in the stand. The sensitivity of species to migration failure was defined using an index based on plant traits that determine species’ capacity to migrate to newly suitable habitat.


The map only displays pixels containing current tree distribution exposed to migration failure for a given time period. Clicking the map generates a table under the Species Exposed header which shows distance values between current and future suitable conditions in a given pixel (2.5km resolution). Distance to suitable habitat and stand sensitivity values are displayed under the Stand Sensitivity header. The table generated shows information only for exposed species, their associated distance and their sensitivity index value.


Map Legend

Stand Sensitivity

Species Exposed

Legend: Distance to suitable habitat increases from green (bottom left corner of legend) to blue (bottom right corner). Stand migration capacity decreases from green to orange (top left corner). Areas comprised of species with a high distance to suitable habitat and low migration capacity are shown in pink (upper right corner).

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